Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Toka Ink Co., Ltd. (688571.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.76 - $55.22$51.75
Multi-Stage$8.37 - $9.15$8.75
Blended Fair Value$30.25
Current Price$7.91
Upside282.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS14.65%10.80%0.150.120.160.090.100.080.050.060.140.17
YoY Growth--22.55%-20.00%81.82%-12.70%27.27%46.63%-8.43%-59.47%-14.05%201.08%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.98%2.60%1.41%1.37%0.69%0.00%0.00%1.26%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7514.228.53
Cash Retained (M)29.8129.8129.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.75-14.22-8.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.0715.6021.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.63409.63409.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.76$51.75$55.22
Upside / Downside200.44%554.21%598.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.74121.13129.00137.39146.32155.83160.50
Payout Ratio73.79%77.03%80.27%83.51%86.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.9293.30103.55114.74126.94140.24148.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.8087.6288.44
Year 2 PV (M)89.6191.3293.04
Year 3 PV (M)92.3795.0297.72
Year 4 PV (M)95.0798.73102.49
Year 5 PV (M)97.71102.43107.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,967.123,110.443,259.23
Equity Value (M)3,428.693,585.563,748.26
Shares Outstanding (M)409.63409.63409.63
Fair Value$8.37$8.75$9.15
Upside / Downside5.82%10.66%15.68%

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