Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

GRIPM Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (688456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.34 - $13.89$10.79
Multi-Stage$9.86 - $10.78$10.31
Blended Fair Value$10.55
Current Price$50.51
Upside-79.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS50.58%0.00%0.280.210.250.150.220.040.200.210.000.00
YoY Growth--36.69%-16.67%60.00%-29.64%503.66%-82.08%-1.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.77%0.79%0.61%0.74%0.09%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.148.845.30
Cash Retained (M)43.1343.1343.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.14-8.84-5.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.9934.2937.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.04101.04101.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate2.25%3.25%4.25%
Fair Value$8.34$10.79$13.89
Upside / Downside-83.48%-78.64%-72.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.6872.9875.3677.8180.3482.9585.44
Payout Ratio38.99%49.19%59.39%69.59%79.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.5635.9044.7654.1564.1174.6679.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate2.25%3.25%4.25%
Year 1 PV (M)32.5832.9033.22
Year 2 PV (M)36.8737.5938.33
Year 3 PV (M)40.4941.6942.91
Year 4 PV (M)43.5045.2347.01
Year 5 PV (M)45.9848.2850.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)796.53836.25877.54
Equity Value (M)995.961,041.941,089.66
Shares Outstanding (M)101.04101.04101.04
Fair Value$9.86$10.31$10.78
Upside / Downside-80.49%-79.58%-78.65%

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