Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Mingzhi Technology Co., Ltd. (688355.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.58 - $7.22$5.79
Multi-Stage$10.03 - $11.01$10.51
Blended Fair Value$8.15
Current Price$19.30
Upside-57.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.56%0.00%0.460.070.420.010.030.350.420.010.000.00
YoY Growth--531.13%-82.58%3,302.42%-53.51%-92.46%-16.06%3,978.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.52%0.51%1.50%0.05%0.10%1.29%1.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.457.164.29
Cash Retained (M)0.640.640.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.45-7.16-4.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.81-6.51-3.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.98123.98123.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.05-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.05-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.35%-0.35%0.65%
Fair Value$4.58$5.79$7.22
Upside / Downside-76.25%-69.99%-62.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.2557.0556.8556.6556.4456.2457.93
Payout Ratio98.88%97.10%95.33%93.55%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.6155.4054.1952.9951.8050.6253.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-1.35%-0.35%0.65%
Year 1 PV (M)51.4551.9752.49
Year 2 PV (M)46.7447.6948.65
Year 3 PV (M)42.4543.7545.08
Year 4 PV (M)38.5340.1241.76
Year 5 PV (M)34.9736.7838.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,029.261,082.501,137.92
Equity Value (M)1,243.401,302.811,364.56
Shares Outstanding (M)123.98123.98123.98
Fair Value$10.03$10.51$11.01
Upside / Downside-48.04%-45.55%-42.97%

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