Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Catalyst Holding Co., Ltd. (688267.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.39 - $203.21$190.44
Multi-Stage$33.30 - $36.47$34.85
Blended Fair Value$112.65
Current Price$28.78
Upside291.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201620152014
DPS39.09%48.76%0.200.260.270.220.060.040.010.000.000.01
YoY Growth---23.73%-3.89%27.15%235.00%66.70%449.85%0.00%0.00%-100.00%47.56%
Dividend Yield--0.76%1.26%0.86%0.58%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.1821.9913.19
Cash Retained (M)114.58114.58114.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.18-21.99-13.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.3992.59101.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.17172.17172.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.39$190.44$203.21
Upside / Downside356.53%561.71%606.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.92187.36199.54212.51226.32241.03248.26
Payout Ratio34.87%45.90%56.92%67.95%78.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.3585.99113.58144.39178.73216.93229.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.2481.0081.76
Year 2 PV (M)98.91100.79102.69
Year 3 PV (M)117.33120.70124.13
Year 4 PV (M)135.53140.74146.10
Year 5 PV (M)153.50160.91168.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,148.105,396.765,654.93
Equity Value (M)5,733.616,000.916,278.23
Shares Outstanding (M)172.17172.17172.17
Fair Value$33.30$34.85$36.47
Upside / Downside15.71%21.11%26.70%

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