Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai MicroPort Endovascular MedTech Co., Ltd. (688016.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.71 - $614.68$251.91
Multi-Stage$68.97 - $75.31$72.08
Blended Fair Value$161.99
Current Price$111.60
Upside45.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS82.09%0.00%3.691.351.240.530.380.180.520.310.060.00
YoY Growth--172.10%9.52%133.33%38.46%107.94%-64.84%71.12%408.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.09%1.07%1.07%0.38%0.20%0.18%0.49%0.29%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)377.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)245.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.5647.2328.34
Cash Retained (M)131.98131.98131.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.56-47.23-28.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.4184.75103.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.690.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.71$251.91$614.68
Upside / Downside9.06%125.72%450.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)377.82402.38428.53456.39486.05517.64533.17
Payout Ratio65.07%70.05%75.04%80.03%85.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)245.84281.88321.57365.23413.21465.88493.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)259.41261.87264.33
Year 2 PV (M)272.34277.53282.76
Year 3 PV (M)284.65292.82301.15
Year 4 PV (M)296.37307.77319.49
Year 5 PV (M)307.50322.36337.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,010.597,349.207,700.77
Equity Value (M)8,430.868,811.549,206.28
Shares Outstanding (M)122.24122.24122.24
Fair Value$68.97$72.08$75.31
Upside / Downside-38.20%-35.41%-32.52%

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