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Definitive Analysis

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JTEKT Corporation (6473.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$935.55 - $1,794.20$1,279.85
Multi-Stage$1,483.21 - $1,625.63$1,553.07
Blended Fair Value$1,416.46
Current Price$1,470.50
Upside-3.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.45%6.09%47.0836.6221.9716.7425.1146.0346.0343.9443.9442.89
YoY Growth--28.58%66.67%31.25%-33.33%-45.45%0.00%4.76%0.00%2.44%64.52%
Dividend Yield--3.96%3.23%1.68%1.64%2.20%5.50%3.40%2.91%2.68%3.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,643.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,534.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,109.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,928.602,455.381,473.23
Cash Retained (M)3,109.003,109.003,109.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,928.60-2,455.38-1,473.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-819.60653.631,635.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.86327.86327.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.501.994.99
LTM Dividend per Share50.4350.4350.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.501.994.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend47.9352.4255.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$935.55$1,279.85$1,794.20
Upside / Downside-36.38%-12.96%22.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,643.0020,103.7220,575.2621,057.8521,551.7622,057.2522,718.97
Payout Ratio84.17%85.34%86.50%87.67%88.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,534.0017,156.1117,798.3118,461.2019,145.3919,851.5221,015.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)15,946.0016,103.3416,260.68
Year 2 PV (M)15,376.0415,680.9715,988.90
Year 3 PV (M)14,823.7615,266.9115,718.81
Year 4 PV (M)14,288.7914,861.1515,450.54
Year 5 PV (M)13,770.7514,463.6915,184.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)412,082.79432,818.58454,380.82
Equity Value (M)486,288.12509,194.64532,984.00
Shares Outstanding (M)327.86327.86327.86
Fair Value$1,483.21$1,553.07$1,625.63
Upside / Downside0.86%5.62%10.55%

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