Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Longwell Company (6290.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.25 - $155.53$116.01
Multi-Stage$144.62 - $158.80$151.58
Blended Fair Value$133.80
Current Price$96.20
Upside39.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.15%9.50%2.932.021.843.223.221.331.322.181.631.51
YoY Growth--45.08%9.79%-42.86%-0.09%142.65%0.95%-39.62%33.53%7.96%27.78%
Dividend Yield--3.53%2.20%2.68%6.15%5.15%2.62%2.64%4.68%5.18%4.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,027.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)470.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)556.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205.50128.4477.06
Cash Retained (M)556.77556.77556.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-205.50-128.44-77.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.27428.33479.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
LTM Dividend per Share2.932.932.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.125.605.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$87.25$116.01$155.53
Upside / Downside-9.30%20.60%61.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,027.511,045.461,063.741,082.331,101.241,120.491,154.11
Payout Ratio45.81%54.65%63.49%72.33%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)470.74571.36675.35782.80893.801,008.441,067.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)530.43535.69540.96
Year 2 PV (M)582.06593.67605.40
Year 3 PV (M)626.34645.18664.39
Year 4 PV (M)663.93690.69718.24
Year 5 PV (M)695.43730.64767.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,130.4421,149.5222,209.46
Equity Value (M)23,228.6424,345.3925,505.71
Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
Fair Value$144.62$151.58$158.80
Upside / Downside50.34%57.56%65.07%

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