Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bull Will Co., Ltd. (6259.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.39 - $5.25$4.25
Multi-Stage$7.83 - $8.61$8.21
Blended Fair Value$6.23
Current Price$16.00
Upside-61.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.570.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.66%291.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%3.04%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.791.120.67
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.79-1.12-0.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.333.003.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.39$4.25$5.25
Upside / Downside-78.83%-73.44%-67.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.968.878.788.708.618.528.78
Payout Ratio54.01%61.20%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.845.436.016.577.137.678.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5.055.105.16
Year 2 PV (M)5.205.315.42
Year 3 PV (M)5.305.465.63
Year 4 PV (M)5.345.575.79
Year 5 PV (M)5.355.635.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)167.41176.12185.20
Equity Value (M)193.65203.19213.11
Shares Outstanding (M)24.7424.7424.74
Fair Value$7.83$8.21$8.61
Upside / Downside-51.08%-48.67%-46.17%

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