Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.,Ltd. (605333.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$248.52 - $292.81$274.40
Multi-Stage$188.17 - $206.57$197.20
Blended Fair Value$235.80
Current Price$37.62
Upside526.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.30%0.00%0.160.130.100.130.060.110.040.050.050.06
YoY Growth--29.83%24.03%-19.08%126.31%-51.76%177.28%-24.02%9.17%-14.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.50%0.54%0.65%0.37%1.50%0.54%0.71%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)656.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)507.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.3582.0949.26
Cash Retained (M)507.93507.93507.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.35-82.09-49.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.59425.84458.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.24445.24445.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.961.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.961.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate-0.07%-0.07%-0.07%
Growth Rate5.30%6.30%7.30%
Fair Value$248.52$274.40$292.81
Upside / Downside560.60%629.39%678.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)656.73698.12742.12788.89838.60891.45918.20
Payout Ratio22.66%36.13%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.80252.20368.05497.50641.80802.31849.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.07%-0.07%-0.07%
Growth Rate5.30%6.30%7.30%
Year 1 PV (M)250.01252.38254.76
Year 2 PV (M)361.67368.57375.54
Year 3 PV (M)484.61498.55512.75
Year 4 PV (M)619.72643.60668.16
Year 5 PV (M)767.97805.13843.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,297.8585,232.0889,317.18
Equity Value (M)83,781.8287,800.3191,972.11
Shares Outstanding (M)445.24445.24445.24
Fair Value$188.17$197.20$206.57
Upside / Downside400.20%424.19%449.09%

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