Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co., Ltd (605268.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.99 - $4.39$3.66
Multi-Stage$5.14 - $5.66$5.40
Blended Fair Value$4.53
Current Price$10.00
Upside-54.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.20%0.00%0.330.230.100.240.000.400.240.000.180.00
YoY Growth--41.39%134.88%-59.79%15,443.21%-99.61%66.67%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.96%2.73%1.01%2.01%0.01%2.72%1.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4422.1513.29
Cash Retained (M)164.46164.46164.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.44-22.15-13.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.02142.31151.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.91456.91456.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.99$3.66$4.39
Upside / Downside-70.10%-63.37%-56.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.21175.44173.69171.95170.23168.53173.58
Payout Ratio7.19%23.76%40.32%56.88%73.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7541.6870.0297.80125.02151.68160.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1438.5338.92
Year 2 PV (M)58.6459.8461.06
Year 3 PV (M)74.9577.2779.63
Year 4 PV (M)87.6891.3195.05
Year 5 PV (M)97.34102.41107.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,992.632,096.392,204.43
Equity Value (M)2,349.382,465.752,586.78
Shares Outstanding (M)456.91456.91456.91
Fair Value$5.14$5.40$5.66
Upside / Downside-48.58%-46.03%-43.39%

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