Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (605116.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.87 - $11.45$9.60
Multi-Stage$13.34 - $14.66$13.99
Blended Fair Value$11.80
Current Price$22.43
Upside-47.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.240.170.130.120.090.000.090.150.190.00
YoY Growth--41.51%28.02%8.76%33.67%0.00%-100.00%-38.34%-23.09%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.75%0.49%0.51%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9153.0731.84
Cash Retained (M)299.35299.35299.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.91-53.07-31.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.45246.29267.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.620.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.87$9.60$11.45
Upside / Downside-64.91%-57.19%-48.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.54420.29416.09411.93407.81403.73415.84
Payout Ratio29.49%41.59%53.69%65.79%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.18174.80223.41271.03317.67363.36384.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)159.34160.97162.59
Year 2 PV (M)185.64189.45193.29
Year 3 PV (M)205.29211.64218.12
Year 4 PV (M)219.34228.44237.81
Year 5 PV (M)228.70240.61253.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,328.244,553.624,788.29
Equity Value (M)5,326.565,584.725,853.12
Shares Outstanding (M)399.21399.21399.21
Fair Value$13.34$13.99$14.66
Upside / Downside-40.51%-37.63%-34.63%

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