Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging Co.,Ltd. (603687.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.87 - $39.90$37.39
Multi-Stage$13.58 - $14.89$14.22
Blended Fair Value$25.81
Current Price$9.17
Upside181.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%15.02%0.050.020.030.050.020.020.010.100.470.01
YoY Growth--123.30%-18.21%-48.77%132.32%14.49%100.78%-89.43%-79.34%5,290.69%-31.08%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.19%0.28%0.60%0.27%0.13%0.10%0.91%4.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8914.318.58
Cash Retained (M)53.8353.8353.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.89-14.31-8.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.9439.5345.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)570.51570.51570.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.87$37.39$39.90
Upside / Downside269.32%307.78%335.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.46121.90129.83138.27147.25156.82161.53
Payout Ratio52.97%60.38%67.78%75.19%82.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6373.6088.00103.96121.62141.14149.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.56%4.56%4.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.7370.3971.05
Year 2 PV (M)78.9880.4982.01
Year 3 PV (M)88.4090.9493.53
Year 4 PV (M)97.98101.75105.63
Year 5 PV (M)107.73112.93118.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,305.697,658.568,024.93
Equity Value (M)7,748.518,115.058,495.47
Shares Outstanding (M)570.51570.51570.51
Fair Value$13.58$14.22$14.89
Upside / Downside48.11%55.12%62.39%

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