Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AIMA Technology Group Co. Ltd. (603529.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.19 - $33.41$27.49
Multi-Stage$43.99 - $48.40$46.16
Blended Fair Value$36.83
Current Price$34.72
Upside6.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.841.170.230.000.000.000.090.790.270.45
YoY Growth---28.36%411.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-88.69%194.75%-40.53%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.89%3.60%0.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,341.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)795.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,546.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)468.36292.72175.63
Cash Retained (M)1,546.491,546.491,546.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-468.36-292.72-175.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,078.131,253.761,370.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)894.24894.24894.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.401.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.401.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.19$27.49$33.41
Upside / Downside-36.08%-20.81%-3.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,341.782,318.362,295.182,272.232,249.512,227.012,293.82
Payout Ratio33.96%45.17%56.38%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)795.291,047.181,293.951,535.671,772.442,004.312,121.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)966.52976.38986.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,102.301,124.911,147.75
Year 3 PV (M)1,207.461,244.801,282.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,286.281,339.591,394.54
Year 5 PV (M)1,342.521,412.421,485.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,434.8935,175.9236,988.74
Equity Value (M)39,339.9541,274.0243,285.38
Shares Outstanding (M)894.24894.24894.24
Fair Value$43.99$46.16$48.40
Upside / Downside26.71%32.94%39.42%

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