Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.,Ltd (603338.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$212.97 - $694.00$650.38
Multi-Stage$91.39 - $100.02$95.63
Blended Fair Value$373.00
Current Price$53.62
Upside595.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.91%56.56%1.320.610.430.310.270.210.160.060.010.03
YoY Growth--114.17%42.37%39.88%13.21%32.34%30.32%146.68%342.67%-50.55%96.75%
Dividend Yield--2.23%1.03%0.79%0.69%0.28%0.50%0.37%0.26%0.07%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,762.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)565.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,196.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.58220.36132.22
Cash Retained (M)1,196.951,196.951,196.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.58-220.36-132.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)844.36976.581,064.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)505.18505.18505.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.671.932.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.671.932.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.793.053.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$212.97$650.38$694.00
Upside / Downside297.19%1,112.94%1,194.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,762.911,877.491,999.532,129.502,267.922,415.332,487.79
Payout Ratio32.10%43.68%55.26%66.84%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)565.96820.151,104.991,423.391,778.522,173.802,301.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)760.13767.33774.54
Year 2 PV (M)949.17967.25985.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,133.201,165.731,198.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,312.311,362.781,414.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,486.591,558.401,632.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,529.4642,487.0544,519.56
Equity Value (M)46,170.8748,308.5450,526.12
Shares Outstanding (M)505.18505.18505.18
Fair Value$91.39$95.63$100.02
Upside / Downside70.45%78.34%86.53%

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