Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. (603268.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.78 - $25.31$22.12
Multi-Stage$27.94 - $30.74$29.31
Blended Fair Value$25.72
Current Price$48.05
Upside-46.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.05%-2.93%0.020.030.040.040.050.100.110.070.030.03
YoY Growth---29.35%-26.41%3.63%-24.14%-45.91%-8.18%47.94%173.42%-5.00%-4.76%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.17%0.30%0.17%0.31%0.70%0.56%0.39%0.08%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,255.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,123.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)251.00156.8894.13
Cash Retained (M)1,123.011,123.011,123.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-251.00-156.88-94.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)872.01966.141,028.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.37315.37315.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.063.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.063.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.183.483.68
WACC / Discount Rate11.19%11.19%11.19%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Fair Value$18.78$22.12$25.31
Upside / Downside-60.92%-53.96%-47.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,255.021,205.721,158.361,112.851,069.141,027.141,057.95
Payout Ratio10.52%26.41%42.31%58.21%74.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.00318.48490.11647.76792.27924.43978.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.19%11.19%11.19%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)283.44286.42289.41
Year 2 PV (M)388.20396.41404.70
Year 3 PV (M)456.62471.18486.05
Year 4 PV (M)497.04518.29540.21
Year 5 PV (M)516.15543.87572.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,669.567,027.787,401.23
Equity Value (M)8,811.029,243.969,694.37
Shares Outstanding (M)315.37315.37315.37
Fair Value$27.94$29.31$30.74
Upside / Downside-41.85%-39.00%-36.03%

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