Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd. (601990.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.97 - $67.86$63.60
Multi-Stage$8.98 - $9.83$9.40
Blended Fair Value$36.50
Current Price$8.54
Upside327.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.89%23.88%0.250.210.240.240.170.130.050.160.210.12
YoY Growth--19.44%-11.17%-2.20%45.46%32.64%131.87%-66.38%-23.64%70.79%318.42%
Dividend Yield--3.05%2.67%2.69%2.94%1.64%0.80%0.43%3.53%4.62%2.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,218.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)433.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)784.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)243.74152.3491.40
Cash Retained (M)784.88784.88784.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-243.74-152.34-91.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)541.14632.54693.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,571.543,571.543,571.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.97$63.60$67.86
Upside / Downside145.54%644.68%694.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,218.701,297.911,382.281,472.121,567.811,669.721,719.81
Payout Ratio35.60%46.48%57.36%68.24%79.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)433.82603.24792.851,004.561,240.441,502.751,590.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)559.14564.44569.74
Year 2 PV (M)681.17694.15707.24
Year 3 PV (M)799.97822.94846.34
Year 4 PV (M)915.61950.82987.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,028.141,077.801,129.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,099.3329,456.5430,865.69
Equity Value (M)32,083.3733,566.6835,105.41
Shares Outstanding (M)3,571.543,571.543,571.54
Fair Value$8.98$9.40$9.83
Upside / Downside5.19%10.05%15.10%

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