Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (601958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.61 - $40.98$26.77
Multi-Stage$13.34 - $14.57$13.94
Blended Fair Value$20.36
Current Price$15.45
Upside31.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.87%17.00%0.270.300.100.250.300.140.060.020.020.06
YoY Growth---11.07%200.00%-60.00%-16.67%105.95%155.25%162.49%20.61%-67.69%0.55%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.59%0.85%3.75%4.98%2.40%0.79%0.32%0.23%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,074.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,644.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)614.81384.26230.56
Cash Retained (M)2,644.252,644.252,644.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-614.81-384.26-230.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,029.432,259.992,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.61$26.77$40.98
Upside / Downside20.44%73.27%165.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,074.073,273.883,486.683,713.323,954.684,211.744,338.09
Payout Ratio13.98%29.19%44.39%59.59%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.82955.511,547.722,212.872,957.963,790.574,012.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)862.05870.22878.39
Year 2 PV (M)1,259.751,283.751,307.97
Year 3 PV (M)1,624.981,671.631,719.16
Year 4 PV (M)1,959.662,035.032,112.54
Year 5 PV (M)2,265.642,375.072,488.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,266.7536,970.1538,738.74
Equity Value (M)43,238.8445,205.8447,245.49
Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
Fair Value$13.34$13.94$14.57
Upside / Downside-13.67%-9.75%-5.67%

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