Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Coal Energy Company Limited (601898.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.23 - $191.84$179.78
Multi-Stage$30.58 - $33.51$32.02
Blended Fair Value$105.90
Current Price$11.36
Upside832.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.33%5.32%0.780.660.300.130.130.080.440.420.440.46
YoY Growth--17.30%119.24%125.19%5.51%62.82%-82.28%5.87%-5.85%-4.30%-0.17%
Dividend Yield--7.73%5.82%3.82%1.66%2.07%1.95%8.38%8.13%7.21%9.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,789.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,162.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,626.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,557.921,598.70959.22
Cash Retained (M)10,626.6710,626.6710,626.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,557.92-1,598.70-959.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,068.759,027.979,667.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,258.4413,258.4413,258.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.680.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.680.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.23$179.78$191.84
Upside / Downside914.31%1,482.61%1,588.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,789.6013,620.9314,506.2915,449.2016,453.3917,522.8618,048.55
Payout Ratio16.91%31.53%46.15%60.76%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,162.944,294.596,694.229,387.6512,402.9515,770.5816,694.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,005.654,043.624,081.59
Year 2 PV (M)5,823.755,934.686,046.65
Year 3 PV (M)7,617.487,836.158,058.97
Year 4 PV (M)9,387.099,748.0910,119.40
Year 5 PV (M)11,132.8111,670.5312,228.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,536.47385,288.62403,720.19
Equity Value (M)405,503.26424,521.69444,255.63
Shares Outstanding (M)13,258.4413,258.4413,258.44
Fair Value$30.58$32.02$33.51
Upside / Downside169.23%181.86%194.96%

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