Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation (601702.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.38 - $249.33$233.66
Multi-Stage$37.38 - $40.94$39.13
Blended Fair Value$136.39
Current Price$16.98
Upside703.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.43%0.00%0.240.150.130.110.080.100.470.040.030.06
YoY Growth--59.50%10.94%22.57%44.67%-25.74%-78.33%1,193.88%20.00%-46.27%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.80%1.05%1.18%1.05%1.93%8.90%0.69%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,246.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)317.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)928.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)249.21155.7593.45
Cash Retained (M)928.56928.56928.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-249.21-155.75-93.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)679.36772.81835.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)993.88993.88993.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.780.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.780.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.101.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.38$233.66$249.33
Upside / Downside579.50%1,276.08%1,368.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,246.031,327.021,413.281,505.141,602.971,707.171,758.38
Payout Ratio25.48%38.38%51.29%64.19%77.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)317.47509.34724.83966.171,235.821,536.451,626.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)474.14478.63483.12
Year 2 PV (M)628.08640.05652.12
Year 3 PV (M)779.34801.71824.51
Year 4 PV (M)927.94963.631,000.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,073.931,125.801,179.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,270.3134,877.2836,545.75
Equity Value (M)37,153.7538,887.1040,685.50
Shares Outstanding (M)993.88993.88993.88
Fair Value$37.38$39.13$40.94
Upside / Downside120.16%130.43%141.08%

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