Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qinhuangdao Port Co., Ltd. (601326.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.34 - $3.50$2.89
Multi-Stage$5.57 - $6.14$5.85
Blended Fair Value$4.37
Current Price$3.39
Upside28.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.63%-11.99%0.110.110.110.120.140.140.170.080.230.43
YoY Growth--0.85%3.51%-9.28%-17.24%6.03%-21.48%122.20%-66.61%-45.69%5.97%
Dividend Yield--3.37%3.40%3.82%4.30%5.16%5.11%3.79%1.40%6.92%12.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,616.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)527.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,088.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)323.34202.09121.25
Cash Retained (M)1,088.721,088.721,088.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-323.34-202.09-121.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)765.38886.63967.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,669.865,669.865,669.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.96%-1.96%-0.96%
Fair Value$2.34$2.89$3.50
Upside / Downside-30.99%-14.73%3.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,616.711,585.101,554.111,523.721,493.931,464.721,508.66
Payout Ratio32.66%44.13%55.59%67.06%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)527.99699.45864.011,021.861,173.211,318.251,395.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.96%-1.96%-0.96%
Year 1 PV (M)650.02656.72663.41
Year 2 PV (M)746.19761.65777.27
Year 3 PV (M)820.15845.77871.91
Year 4 PV (M)875.08911.71949.48
Year 5 PV (M)913.77961.831,011.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,579.1029,029.6430,540.58
Equity Value (M)31,584.3133,167.3134,814.53
Shares Outstanding (M)5,669.865,669.865,669.86
Fair Value$5.57$5.85$6.14
Upside / Downside64.32%72.56%81.13%

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