Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Yulong Gold Co., Ltd. (601028.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $6.94$5.61
Multi-Stage$10.23 - $11.27$10.74
Blended Fair Value$8.17
Current Price$14.23
Upside-42.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%-0.70%0.100.090.010.000.000.000.000.070.120.14
YoY Growth--6.87%824.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.94%-42.19%-20.61%42.08%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.73%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.68%1.44%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)368.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.7446.0927.65
Cash Retained (M)273.42273.42273.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.74-46.09-27.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.68227.33245.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.53778.53778.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.47$5.61$6.94
Upside / Downside-68.61%-60.58%-51.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)368.71365.02361.37357.75354.18350.64361.15
Payout Ratio25.84%38.68%51.51%64.34%77.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.29141.17186.13230.17273.31315.57334.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)131.45132.79134.13
Year 2 PV (M)161.37164.68168.02
Year 3 PV (M)185.81191.55197.41
Year 4 PV (M)205.43213.95222.72
Year 5 PV (M)220.86232.36244.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,056.227,423.657,806.24
Equity Value (M)7,961.138,358.988,772.86
Shares Outstanding (M)778.53778.53778.53
Fair Value$10.23$10.74$11.27
Upside / Downside-28.14%-24.55%-20.81%

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