Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation Limited (600959.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.40 - $0.53$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.72 - $0.79$0.75
Blended Fair Value$0.61
Current Price$3.62
Upside-83.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.20%-8.58%0.040.040.040.040.040.100.010.090.010.11
YoY Growth---2.84%22.38%-4.65%3.14%-62.51%574.58%-82.93%737.18%-90.93%6.43%
Dividend Yield--1.31%1.42%1.09%1.17%1.20%2.75%0.26%1.20%0.10%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)455.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)332.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.1956.9934.20
Cash Retained (M)332.46332.46332.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.19-56.99-34.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)241.27275.47298.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.224,995.224,995.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-7.15%-6.15%-5.15%
Fair Value$0.40$0.47$0.53
Upside / Downside-89.00%-87.09%-85.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)455.94427.92401.62376.94353.77332.03341.99
Payout Ratio27.08%39.67%52.25%64.83%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.48169.74209.84244.38273.88298.83316.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-7.15%-6.15%-5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)152.82154.46156.11
Year 2 PV (M)170.10173.78177.50
Year 3 PV (M)178.35184.17190.12
Year 4 PV (M)179.95187.83195.96
Year 5 PV (M)176.77186.50196.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,716.912,866.403,022.39
Equity Value (M)3,574.893,753.143,938.73
Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.224,995.224,995.22
Fair Value$0.72$0.75$0.79
Upside / Downside-80.23%-79.24%-78.22%

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