Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Hec Technologyholding Co., Ltd (600673.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.54 - $65.73$61.60
Multi-Stage$8.70 - $9.53$9.11
Blended Fair Value$35.35
Current Price$23.28
Upside51.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%15.13%0.470.140.390.170.180.220.110.150.160.11
YoY Growth--231.69%-63.60%126.60%-6.60%-16.40%92.76%-23.41%-8.22%40.75%0.45%
Dividend Yield--4.71%1.62%4.33%2.33%3.69%3.13%1.19%1.46%2.22%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)968.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)294.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)673.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.61121.0072.60
Cash Retained (M)673.33673.33673.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.61-121.00-72.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)479.73552.33600.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,928.902,928.902,928.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.54$61.60$65.73
Upside / Downside-11.78%164.60%182.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)968.031,030.951,097.971,169.331,245.341,326.291,366.08
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.27%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)294.70436.65595.82773.83972.471,193.661,263.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)404.79408.63412.47
Year 2 PV (M)512.04521.79531.64
Year 3 PV (M)616.50634.20652.23
Year 4 PV (M)718.22745.84774.25
Year 5 PV (M)817.25856.72897.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,423.6123,506.6824,631.20
Equity Value (M)25,492.4126,673.8627,899.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,928.902,928.902,928.90
Fair Value$8.70$9.11$9.53
Upside / Downside-62.61%-60.88%-59.08%

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