Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Oriental Pearl Group Co., Ltd. (600637.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.58 - $0.76$0.67
Multi-Stage$1.05 - $1.16$1.11
Blended Fair Value$0.89
Current Price$10.31
Upside-91.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.08%10.36%0.200.130.270.270.270.270.270.270.180.09
YoY Growth--48.55%-50.00%0.00%-1.54%-0.08%0.37%2.94%47.83%100.74%19.58%
Dividend Yield--2.60%1.80%3.32%3.47%2.85%3.14%2.16%2.11%1.04%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)460.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.3261.4536.87
Cash Retained (M)460.26460.26460.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.32-61.45-36.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)361.95398.81423.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,362.813,362.813,362.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-8.81%-7.81%-6.81%
Fair Value$0.58$0.67$0.76
Upside / Downside-94.40%-93.45%-92.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.59453.18417.78385.14355.05327.31337.13
Payout Ratio6.37%23.10%39.82%56.55%73.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.32104.67166.37217.79260.16294.58311.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-8.81%-7.81%-6.81%
Year 1 PV (M)94.4295.4596.49
Year 2 PV (M)135.36138.35141.37
Year 3 PV (M)159.83165.15170.58
Year 4 PV (M)172.22179.90187.83
Year 5 PV (M)175.89185.75196.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,795.182,951.853,115.46
Equity Value (M)3,532.913,716.443,907.77
Shares Outstanding (M)3,362.813,362.813,362.81
Fair Value$1.05$1.11$1.16
Upside / Downside-89.81%-89.28%-88.73%

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