Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai New World Co., Ltd (600628.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.37 - $0.48$0.43
Multi-Stage$0.78 - $0.86$0.82
Blended Fair Value$0.62
Current Price$7.39
Upside-91.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.40%-15.70%0.060.060.100.110.120.190.260.160.140.28
YoY Growth---4.50%-40.24%-8.73%-10.25%-35.85%-27.70%59.90%20.81%-50.98%-11.69%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.94%1.33%1.50%1.45%1.60%3.36%1.76%1.10%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.828.635.18
Cash Retained (M)39.7639.7639.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.82-8.63-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.9431.1234.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)607.96607.96607.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate-12.33%-11.33%-10.33%
Fair Value$0.37$0.43$0.48
Upside / Downside-95.01%-94.22%-93.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.0861.2554.3148.1642.7037.8639.00
Payout Ratio42.45%51.96%61.47%70.98%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.3231.8233.3834.1834.3734.0836.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate-12.33%-11.33%-10.33%
Year 1 PV (M)28.7929.1229.45
Year 2 PV (M)27.3227.9528.58
Year 3 PV (M)25.3026.1827.07
Year 4 PV (M)23.0224.0825.19
Year 5 PV (M)20.6421.8523.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)346.88367.12388.29
Equity Value (M)471.94496.29521.68
Shares Outstanding (M)607.96607.96607.96
Fair Value$0.78$0.82$0.86
Upside / Downside-89.50%-88.95%-88.39%

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