Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Tianchen Co.,Ltd (600620.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.96 - $1.53$1.22
Multi-Stage$1.08 - $1.19$1.13
Blended Fair Value$1.18
Current Price$6.20
Upside-81.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.17%-9.80%0.040.070.070.050.030.030.030.030.030.05
YoY Growth---45.18%-3.07%37.71%67.94%-0.21%0.19%0.03%12.97%-43.10%-54.88%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.02%0.54%0.56%0.47%0.51%0.36%0.35%0.19%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.437.774.66
Cash Retained (M)54.2954.2954.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.43-7.77-4.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.8746.5349.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)682.52682.52682.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Fair Value$0.96$1.22$1.53
Upside / Downside-84.47%-80.29%-75.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.1364.1066.1368.2270.3872.6174.79
Payout Ratio12.62%28.09%43.57%59.05%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.8418.0128.8140.2852.4565.3569.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Year 1 PV (M)16.2316.3916.54
Year 2 PV (M)23.4023.8624.32
Year 3 PV (M)29.4830.3531.24
Year 4 PV (M)34.5935.9637.38
Year 5 PV (M)38.8440.7842.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)596.54626.31657.26
Equity Value (M)739.07773.65809.54
Shares Outstanding (M)682.52682.52682.52
Fair Value$1.08$1.13$1.19
Upside / Downside-82.53%-81.72%-80.87%

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