Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.,Ltd (600575.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.72 - $2.54$2.11
Multi-Stage$1.45 - $1.58$1.51
Blended Fair Value$1.81
Current Price$3.36
Upside-46.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.52%19.19%0.180.050.030.040.150.060.070.070.080.11
YoY Growth--228.06%78.28%-24.71%-72.22%154.66%-17.93%-1.84%-8.23%-26.75%242.99%
Dividend Yield--5.32%2.05%1.25%1.24%6.46%2.62%2.43%1.91%1.32%2.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)767.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.5595.9757.58
Cash Retained (M)607.76607.76607.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.55-95.97-57.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.22511.80550.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,843.943,843.943,843.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.72$2.11$2.54
Upside / Downside-48.88%-37.15%-24.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)767.74817.64870.79927.39987.671,051.871,083.43
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.33%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.98283.47422.35578.09752.28946.681,002.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)243.52245.83248.14
Year 2 PV (M)311.69317.62323.61
Year 3 PV (M)366.48377.00387.72
Year 4 PV (M)409.70425.45441.66
Year 5 PV (M)442.90464.29486.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,807.473,991.384,182.32
Equity Value (M)5,581.765,821.576,069.95
Shares Outstanding (M)3,843.943,843.943,843.94
Fair Value$1.45$1.51$1.58
Upside / Downside-56.78%-54.93%-53.00%

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