Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., Ltd. (600550.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.58 - $0.83$0.70
Multi-Stage$0.90 - $0.98$0.94
Blended Fair Value$0.82
Current Price$8.23
Upside-90.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.16%-13.78%0.040.050.040.050.070.080.110.130.150.16
YoY Growth---9.42%6.49%-4.34%-32.33%-11.37%-31.48%-10.27%-17.19%-2.45%-17.43%
Dividend Yield--0.49%1.13%0.87%0.76%1.54%1.41%2.20%1.92%2.16%2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.5719.7311.84
Cash Retained (M)102.76102.76102.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.57-19.73-11.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.1983.0390.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,871.541,871.541,871.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-1.74%-0.74%0.26%
Fair Value$0.58$0.70$0.83
Upside / Downside-92.94%-91.45%-89.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.86156.69155.54154.39153.25152.12156.69
Payout Ratio34.90%45.92%56.94%67.96%78.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.1071.9688.57104.93121.04136.91144.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-1.74%-0.74%0.26%
Year 1 PV (M)64.9565.6266.28
Year 2 PV (M)72.1673.6475.13
Year 3 PV (M)77.1779.5581.98
Year 4 PV (M)80.3583.6787.10
Year 5 PV (M)82.0486.3090.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,302.011,369.621,440.01
Equity Value (M)1,678.681,758.391,841.22
Shares Outstanding (M)1,871.541,871.541,871.54
Fair Value$0.90$0.94$0.98
Upside / Downside-89.10%-88.58%-88.05%

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