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Definitive Analysis

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Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. (600369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.16 - $1.74$1.44
Multi-Stage$3.74 - $4.13$3.93
Blended Fair Value$2.68
Current Price$4.75
Upside-43.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.97%8.05%0.140.110.190.230.210.160.170.200.260.17
YoY Growth--24.76%-41.92%-14.69%8.69%34.70%-7.36%-17.76%-20.26%47.21%167.98%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.86%4.98%5.22%4.48%3.43%2.98%4.68%4.11%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)922.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)184.42115.2769.16
Cash Retained (M)670.81670.81670.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-184.42-115.27-69.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)486.39555.55601.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,419.316,419.316,419.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate-3.97%-2.97%-1.97%
Fair Value$1.16$1.44$1.74
Upside / Downside-75.52%-69.76%-63.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)922.12894.70868.09842.27817.23792.92816.71
Payout Ratio27.25%39.80%52.35%64.90%77.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.31356.11454.46546.65632.95713.63755.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate-3.97%-2.97%-1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)334.02337.50340.98
Year 2 PV (M)399.82408.19416.64
Year 3 PV (M)451.08465.32479.85
Year 4 PV (M)489.88510.61531.99
Year 5 PV (M)518.06545.60574.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,795.3322,954.0824,161.60
Equity Value (M)23,988.1925,221.3026,505.37
Shares Outstanding (M)6,419.316,419.316,419.31
Fair Value$3.74$3.93$4.13
Upside / Downside-21.33%-17.28%-13.07%

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