Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo United Group Co.,Ltd. (600051.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.02 - $1.34$1.19
Multi-Stage$3.41 - $3.79$3.59
Blended Fair Value$2.39
Current Price$7.15
Upside-66.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.16%-10.85%0.210.260.190.250.230.220.290.400.530.51
YoY Growth---17.55%34.46%-22.94%8.39%1.89%-22.69%-27.45%-25.35%5.33%-23.82%
Dividend Yield--3.15%4.17%2.54%3.05%2.74%3.43%4.02%4.08%4.42%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6411.656.99
Cash Retained (M)41.8741.8741.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.64-11.65-6.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2330.2234.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.92329.92329.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-12.85%-11.85%-10.85%
Fair Value$1.02$1.19$1.34
Upside / Downside-85.77%-83.39%-81.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.2282.1772.4363.8556.2849.6151.10
Payout Ratio55.08%62.06%69.05%76.03%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.3551.0050.0148.5446.7244.6547.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-12.85%-11.85%-10.85%
Year 1 PV (M)47.3447.8948.43
Year 2 PV (M)43.1044.0945.10
Year 3 PV (M)38.8340.1841.57
Year 4 PV (M)34.6936.3137.99
Year 5 PV (M)30.7832.5834.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)930.32984.941,042.09
Equity Value (M)1,125.061,186.001,249.65
Shares Outstanding (M)329.92329.92329.92
Fair Value$3.41$3.59$3.79
Upside / Downside-52.31%-49.72%-47.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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