Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunfun Info Co., Ltd. (5278.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.96 - $11.96$9.85
Multi-Stage$16.08 - $17.66$16.85
Blended Fair Value$13.35
Current Price$33.20
Upside-59.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-10.38%0.00%0.500.800.790.570.430.860.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---37.62%0.57%40.61%30.99%-49.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.55%4.24%6.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9435.5921.35
Cash Retained (M)103.74103.74103.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.94-35.59-21.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.8068.1582.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.25300.25300.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.96$9.85$11.96
Upside / Downside-76.01%-70.32%-63.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.68281.83279.01276.22273.46270.73278.85
Payout Ratio63.56%68.85%74.14%79.42%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.94194.04206.85219.39231.66243.66257.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)178.95180.78182.60
Year 2 PV (M)175.94179.54183.19
Year 3 PV (M)172.09177.42182.85
Year 4 PV (M)167.59174.53181.69
Year 5 PV (M)162.56171.03179.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,969.964,176.694,391.94
Equity Value (M)4,827.095,059.995,302.11
Shares Outstanding (M)300.25300.25300.25
Fair Value$16.08$16.85$17.66
Upside / Downside-51.57%-49.24%-46.81%

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