Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Advanced Echem Materials Company Limited (4749.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$391.99 - $2,113.18$768.87
Multi-Stage$228.30 - $249.33$238.62
Blended Fair Value$503.75
Current Price$890.00
Upside-43.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS52.45%0.00%2.552.720.900.000.180.310.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.03%202.99%0.00%-100.00%-41.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.46%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)955.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)555.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)191.12119.4571.67
Cash Retained (M)400.21400.21400.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-191.12-119.45-71.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)209.09280.76328.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.9389.9389.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.333.123.65
LTM Dividend per Share6.186.186.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.333.123.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.509.309.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$391.99$768.87$2,113.18
Upside / Downside-55.96%-13.61%137.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)955.581,017.701,083.851,154.301,229.331,309.231,348.51
Payout Ratio58.12%64.50%70.87%77.25%83.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)555.37656.36768.14891.671,028.011,178.311,247.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)603.22608.94614.66
Year 2 PV (M)648.79661.15673.62
Year 3 PV (M)692.15712.02732.27
Year 4 PV (M)733.38761.58790.59
Year 5 PV (M)772.55809.86848.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,081.3017,906.3418,762.95
Equity Value (M)20,531.3921,459.8922,422.69
Shares Outstanding (M)89.9389.9389.93
Fair Value$228.30$238.62$249.33
Upside / Downside-74.35%-73.19%-71.99%

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