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KeyHolder, Inc. (4712.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,052.38 - $23,039.12$21,591.03
Multi-Stage$3,178.93 - $3,479.36$3,326.39
Blended Fair Value$12,458.71
Current Price$738.00
Upside1,588.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS15.00%0.00%26.9511.6011.8611.5414.8713.400.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--132.22%-2.12%2.78%-22.43%11.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%1.21%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,180.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)698.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,481.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)436.03272.52163.51
Cash Retained (M)1,481.301,481.301,481.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-436.03-272.52-163.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,045.271,208.781,317.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
LTM Dividend per Share37.1437.1437.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.68101.37107.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,052.38$21,591.03$23,039.12
Upside / Downside991.11%2,825.61%3,021.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,180.152,321.862,472.782,633.512,804.692,986.993,076.60
Payout Ratio32.06%43.64%55.23%66.82%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)698.851,013.361,365.791,759.772,199.192,688.292,845.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)940.68949.60958.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,176.921,199.341,221.96
Year 3 PV (M)1,407.661,448.071,489.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,632.991,695.791,760.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,853.021,942.522,035.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,813.6255,364.5458,013.09
Equity Value (M)59,824.8962,599.8565,478.64
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
Fair Value$3,178.93$3,326.39$3,479.36
Upside / Downside330.75%350.73%371.46%

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