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Definitive Analysis

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TDC SOFT Inc. (4687.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,535.93 - $3,382.75$2,209.65
Multi-Stage$1,103.14 - $1,205.23$1,153.26
Blended Fair Value$1,681.45
Current Price$1,341.00
Upside25.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.34%22.36%24.3615.4023.2912.4712.4711.439.098.185.113.58
YoY Growth--58.12%-33.85%86.77%0.00%9.09%25.71%11.19%60.00%42.86%10.53%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.27%2.59%2.35%2.50%2.29%2.07%1.98%1.62%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,689.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,115.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)737.82461.14276.68
Cash Retained (M)3,115.163,115.163,115.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-737.82-461.14-276.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,377.352,654.032,838.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.1447.1447.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.4356.3060.22
LTM Dividend per Share12.1812.1812.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.4356.3060.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend62.6168.4872.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,535.93$2,209.65$3,382.75
Upside / Downside14.54%64.78%152.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,689.103,928.894,184.264,456.244,745.905,054.385,206.01
Payout Ratio15.56%30.45%45.33%60.22%75.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573.931,196.191,896.922,683.683,564.724,548.944,815.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,079.191,089.421,099.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,543.991,573.401,603.09
Year 3 PV (M)1,970.732,027.302,084.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,361.662,452.492,545.90
Year 5 PV (M)2,718.952,850.282,986.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,324.6944,368.9946,491.53
Equity Value (M)51,999.2254,361.8856,811.75
Shares Outstanding (M)47.1447.1447.14
Fair Value$1,103.14$1,153.26$1,205.23
Upside / Downside-17.74%-14.00%-10.12%

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