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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. (4516.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38,749.40 - $94,276.70$88,351.08
Multi-Stage$13,655.95 - $14,952.17$14,292.13
Blended Fair Value$51,321.61
Current Price$3,333.00
Upside1,439.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.12%17.83%123.88118.88115.88100.8991.9583.8654.8855.9231.9626.99
YoY Growth--4.21%2.59%14.86%9.73%9.64%52.81%-1.86%74.93%18.42%12.42%
Dividend Yield--3.94%3.58%1.97%1.22%1.04%0.96%0.69%0.81%0.44%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31,945.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,349.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,596.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,389.003,993.132,395.88
Cash Retained (M)23,596.0023,596.0023,596.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,389.00-3,993.13-2,395.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,207.0019,602.8821,200.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.3967.3967.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share255.34290.90314.60
LTM Dividend per Share123.90123.90123.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share255.34290.90314.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend379.24414.79438.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38,749.40$88,351.08$94,276.70
Upside / Downside1,062.60%2,550.80%2,728.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31,945.0034,021.4336,232.8238,587.9541,096.1743,767.4245,080.44
Payout Ratio26.14%38.91%51.68%64.45%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,349.0013,237.2018,725.6024,871.5631,737.3839,390.6841,699.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,308.8312,425.5012,542.18
Year 2 PV (M)16,191.1216,499.5216,810.82
Year 3 PV (M)19,997.0020,571.0521,155.97
Year 4 PV (M)23,727.5924,640.0825,578.65
Year 5 PV (M)27,383.9828,706.6330,079.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)820,630.10860,266.84901,420.57
Equity Value (M)920,238.63963,109.631,007,588.10
Shares Outstanding (M)67.3967.3967.39
Fair Value$13,655.95$14,292.13$14,952.17
Upside / Downside309.72%328.81%348.61%

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