Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. (3769.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,711.55 - $14,006.30$8,519.39
Multi-Stage$4,112.54 - $4,486.32$4,296.06
Blended Fair Value$6,407.73
Current Price$9,341.00
Upside-31.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.87%31.97%87.67157.6258.1149.7334.4227.7419.2813.017.796.72
YoY Growth---44.38%171.22%16.86%44.49%24.05%43.88%48.19%67.04%15.88%22.82%
Dividend Yield--1.10%1.61%0.53%0.35%0.25%0.37%0.41%0.28%0.30%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,043.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,399.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,644.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,008.792,505.501,503.30
Cash Retained (M)10,644.5510,644.5510,644.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,008.79-2,505.50-1,503.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,635.758,139.059,141.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.9476.9476.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share86.24105.78118.80
LTM Dividend per Share122.16122.16122.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share86.24105.78118.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.40227.94240.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,711.55$8,519.39$14,006.30
Upside / Downside-38.86%-8.80%49.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,043.9721,346.8322,734.3724,212.1025,785.8927,461.9728,285.83
Payout Ratio46.89%55.52%64.14%72.76%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,399.4211,850.7414,581.0117,616.1520,984.2524,715.7826,164.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,735.7310,837.4910,939.26
Year 2 PV (M)11,966.3212,194.2412,424.31
Year 3 PV (M)13,096.9513,472.9213,856.01
Year 4 PV (M)14,133.1614,676.6815,235.73
Year 5 PV (M)15,080.1815,808.5616,564.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)251,425.93263,569.90276,178.65
Equity Value (M)316,438.27330,559.79345,198.77
Shares Outstanding (M)76.9476.9476.94
Fair Value$4,112.54$4,296.06$4,486.32
Upside / Downside-55.97%-54.01%-51.97%

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