Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gambol Pet Group Co., Ltd. (301498.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.66 - $246.77$92.92
Multi-Stage$32.16 - $35.16$33.63
Blended Fair Value$63.28
Current Price$93.93
Upside-32.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS47.84%0.00%0.420.000.030.050.060.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11,247.14%-87.35%-38.83%-17.00%-3.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.01%0.05%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)667.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)466.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.4683.4150.05
Cash Retained (M)466.89466.89466.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.46-83.41-50.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)333.42383.47416.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.31400.31400.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.66$92.92$246.77
Upside / Downside-43.94%-1.07%162.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)667.31710.69756.88806.08858.47914.27941.70
Payout Ratio30.03%42.03%54.02%66.01%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.43298.69408.87532.12669.67822.85871.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)273.53276.12278.72
Year 2 PV (M)342.90349.43356.02
Year 3 PV (M)408.68420.41432.36
Year 4 PV (M)471.00489.11507.74
Year 5 PV (M)529.99555.58582.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,848.3811,372.3611,916.40
Equity Value (M)12,874.4713,463.0214,073.40
Shares Outstanding (M)400.31400.31400.31
Fair Value$32.16$33.63$35.16
Upside / Downside-65.76%-64.19%-62.57%

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