Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shiyan Taixiang Industry Co.,Ltd. (301192.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.02 - $80.14$75.10
Multi-Stage$56.68 - $62.19$59.38
Blended Fair Value$67.24
Current Price$32.58
Upside106.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.87%47.75%0.250.240.500.330.370.530.530.530.420.00
YoY Growth--5.47%-52.67%50.00%-9.56%-30.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%21,260.41%-60.83%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.40%2.59%0.94%1.04%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.19%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.055.033.02
Cash Retained (M)12.2512.2512.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.05-5.03-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.207.229.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.8899.8899.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate-1.68%-1.68%-1.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.02$75.10$80.14
Upside / Downside108.78%130.52%145.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2542.8645.6548.6251.7855.1456.80
Payout Ratio69.57%73.66%77.74%81.83%85.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.0031.5735.4939.7844.4849.6352.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.68%-1.68%-1.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.8132.1132.41
Year 2 PV (M)36.0336.7137.41
Year 3 PV (M)40.6941.8643.05
Year 4 PV (M)45.8447.6149.42
Year 5 PV (M)51.5354.0256.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,455.355,718.855,992.43
Equity Value (M)5,661.265,931.166,211.32
Shares Outstanding (M)99.8899.8899.88
Fair Value$56.68$59.38$62.19
Upside / Downside73.98%82.27%90.88%

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