Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ruijie Networks Co., Ltd. (301165.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.65 - $17.62$14.46
Multi-Stage$23.86 - $26.25$25.03
Blended Fair Value$19.74
Current Price$89.41
Upside-77.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.15%0.00%0.550.760.060.040.050.620.550.460.000.00
YoY Growth---26.84%1,150.16%42.38%-9.62%-92.38%11.81%18.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%2.65%0.17%0.16%0.18%2.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)842.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)365.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)477.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.56105.3563.21
Cash Retained (M)477.58477.58477.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.56-105.35-63.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)309.02372.23414.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)625.00625.00625.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.65$14.46$17.62
Upside / Downside-86.98%-83.83%-80.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)842.79834.36826.02817.75809.58801.48825.53
Payout Ratio43.33%52.67%62.00%71.33%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)365.21439.43512.13583.33653.06721.33763.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.08%7.08%7.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)406.24410.38414.53
Year 2 PV (M)437.68446.66455.73
Year 3 PV (M)460.88475.13489.68
Year 4 PV (M)477.00496.77517.14
Year 5 PV (M)487.07512.43538.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,643.7313,302.1213,987.65
Equity Value (M)14,912.5915,643.4916,403.57
Shares Outstanding (M)625.00625.00625.00
Fair Value$23.86$25.03$26.25
Upside / Downside-73.31%-72.01%-70.65%

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