Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi GETO New Materials Corporation Limited (300986.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.90 - $15.50$10.90
Multi-Stage$6.21 - $6.77$6.49
Blended Fair Value$8.69
Current Price$11.45
Upside-24.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.70%47.35%0.270.120.170.070.090.050.040.010.010.01
YoY Growth--131.79%-33.15%141.23%-18.64%87.82%33.22%199.91%124.49%-0.81%-5.09%
Dividend Yield--2.05%1.27%0.93%0.56%0.54%0.29%0.22%0.00%0.03%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)132.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.4416.539.92
Cash Retained (M)66.1366.1366.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.44-16.53-9.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.6849.6056.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.12282.12282.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.90$10.90$15.50
Upside / Downside-31.00%-4.80%35.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)132.22140.82149.97159.72170.10181.16186.59
Payout Ratio49.99%57.99%65.99%74.00%82.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.1081.6698.97118.19139.48163.04172.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.2073.9074.59
Year 2 PV (M)79.5381.0582.58
Year 3 PV (M)85.1487.5890.07
Year 4 PV (M)90.0793.5397.09
Year 5 PV (M)94.3898.94103.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,330.931,395.211,461.96
Equity Value (M)1,753.241,830.201,909.96
Shares Outstanding (M)282.12282.12282.12
Fair Value$6.21$6.49$6.77
Upside / Downside-45.72%-43.34%-40.87%

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