Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huali Industrial Group Company Limited (300979.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.64 - $115.20$77.41
Multi-Stage$39.69 - $43.37$41.50
Blended Fair Value$59.45
Current Price$53.02
Upside12.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS101.75%0.00%1.221.251.151.020.120.040.110.530.000.00
YoY Growth---2.49%8.83%12.35%783.68%217.21%-65.45%-80.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.95%2.08%2.19%1.41%0.12%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,432.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,002.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)686.51429.07257.44
Cash Retained (M)3,002.613,002.613,002.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-686.51-429.07-257.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,316.102,573.542,745.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.591,169.591,169.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.982.202.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.982.202.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.352.572.71
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.64$77.41$115.20
Upside / Downside3.06%45.99%117.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,432.573,655.693,893.314,146.374,415.894,702.924,844.01
Payout Ratio12.53%28.02%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.961,024.351,694.192,446.793,290.064,232.634,480.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.03%10.03%10.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)922.20930.94939.69
Year 2 PV (M)1,373.161,399.311,425.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,785.391,836.641,888.87
Year 4 PV (M)2,161.332,244.452,329.94
Year 5 PV (M)2,503.262,624.172,749.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,678.1439,498.0141,387.52
Equity Value (M)46,423.4848,533.5250,721.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.591,169.591,169.59
Fair Value$39.69$41.50$43.37
Upside / Downside-25.14%-21.74%-18.21%

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