Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Songyuan Automotive Safety Systems Co.,Ltd. (300893.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.52 - $213.86$200.42
Multi-Stage$135.75 - $149.00$142.25
Blended Fair Value$171.33
Current Price$28.50
Upside501.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.55%0.00%0.200.110.120.180.070.130.160.090.160.00
YoY Growth--76.03%-3.24%-37.02%153.55%-41.98%-19.72%64.43%-39.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.53%0.66%1.58%0.69%0.96%1.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.5541.5924.95
Cash Retained (M)274.99274.99274.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.55-41.59-24.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.45233.40250.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)309.42309.42309.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.750.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.750.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.940.99
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.52$200.42$213.86
Upside / Downside536.90%603.22%650.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.73354.36377.39401.92428.04455.87469.54
Payout Ratio17.35%31.88%46.41%60.94%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.73112.97175.15244.93323.05410.28434.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.56112.62113.68
Year 2 PV (M)170.81174.06177.35
Year 3 PV (M)235.88242.65249.55
Year 4 PV (M)307.23319.05331.20
Year 5 PV (M)385.33403.94423.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,791.1442,761.3744,807.00
Equity Value (M)42,001.9644,013.6946,102.04
Shares Outstanding (M)309.42309.42309.42
Fair Value$135.75$142.25$149.00
Upside / Downside376.30%399.11%422.80%

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