Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yangzhou Seashine New Materials Co.,Ltd. (300885.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.73 - $4.28$3.44
Multi-Stage$3.29 - $3.60$3.44
Blended Fair Value$3.44
Current Price$24.01
Upside-85.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS75.21%0.00%0.080.000.000.240.000.000.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-83.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.00%0.00%1.81%0.00%0.03%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.628.515.11
Cash Retained (M)38.1038.1038.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.62-8.51-5.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.4829.5933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.07250.07250.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$2.73$3.44$4.28
Upside / Downside-88.61%-85.66%-82.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.1170.0772.0974.1676.3078.5080.85
Payout Ratio44.05%53.24%62.43%71.62%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0037.3045.0053.1261.6670.6574.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)33.5833.9134.24
Year 2 PV (M)36.4737.1937.92
Year 3 PV (M)38.7639.9141.08
Year 4 PV (M)40.5042.1143.78
Year 5 PV (M)41.7843.8746.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)631.90663.53696.41
Equity Value (M)823.00860.53899.48
Shares Outstanding (M)250.07250.07250.07
Fair Value$3.29$3.44$3.60
Upside / Downside-86.29%-85.67%-85.02%

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