Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co.,Ltd. (300879.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.11 - $14.37$10.76
Multi-Stage$9.59 - $10.51$10.04
Blended Fair Value$10.40
Current Price$35.25
Upside-70.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.82%0.00%0.170.190.240.200.100.070.050.250.200.00
YoY Growth---8.21%-22.72%24.03%99.18%40.93%46.63%-80.85%23.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.50%1.33%1.19%0.37%0.10%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7414.848.90
Cash Retained (M)84.9384.9384.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.74-14.84-8.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.1970.0976.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Fair Value$8.11$10.76$14.37
Upside / Downside-77.00%-69.48%-59.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.70122.67126.77131.01135.38139.91144.10
Payout Ratio28.45%40.76%53.07%65.38%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7750.0067.2885.65105.18125.92133.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Year 1 PV (M)45.7246.1746.61
Year 2 PV (M)56.2457.3558.46
Year 3 PV (M)65.4767.4169.39
Year 4 PV (M)73.5176.4279.43
Year 5 PV (M)80.4684.4788.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,603.721,683.621,766.67
Equity Value (M)1,925.132,015.442,109.20
Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
Fair Value$9.59$10.04$10.51
Upside / Downside-72.80%-71.52%-70.20%

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