Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co., Ltd (300829.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.97 - $67.68$22.65
Multi-Stage$7.00 - $7.65$7.32
Blended Fair Value$14.99
Current Price$18.24
Upside-17.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.16%7.09%0.200.100.070.140.050.070.120.050.050.08
YoY Growth--98.22%46.67%-50.10%185.94%-34.41%-40.99%131.83%6.89%-35.72%-22.47%
Dividend Yield--1.20%0.58%0.28%0.45%0.12%0.36%0.61%0.26%0.24%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.608.505.10
Cash Retained (M)42.7942.7942.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.60-8.50-5.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.1934.2937.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.86199.86199.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.97$22.65$67.68
Upside / Downside-34.38%24.20%271.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.0272.4477.1582.1687.5093.1995.99
Payout Ratio37.09%47.67%58.25%68.83%79.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.2234.5344.9456.5669.4983.8788.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.7032.0032.30
Year 2 PV (M)37.8838.6039.33
Year 3 PV (M)43.7645.0246.30
Year 4 PV (M)49.3751.2753.22
Year 5 PV (M)54.7057.3560.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,181.881,238.971,298.24
Equity Value (M)1,399.301,463.211,529.48
Shares Outstanding (M)199.86199.86199.86
Fair Value$7.00$7.32$7.65
Upside / Downside-61.61%-59.86%-58.04%

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