Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Three Squirrels Inc. (300783.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.13 - $112.98$53.62
Multi-Stage$12.91 - $14.11$13.50
Blended Fair Value$33.56
Current Price$24.10
Upside39.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.98%136.28%0.260.160.230.240.250.010.010.270.040.00
YoY Growth--60.28%-30.88%-4.84%-2.41%3,249.13%-17.05%-96.61%613.73%1,830.52%3,965.98%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.70%1.18%0.92%0.64%0.01%0.04%1.26%0.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)125.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.4428.4017.04
Cash Retained (M)125.88125.88125.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.44-28.40-17.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.4497.48108.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)399.92399.92399.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.13$53.62$112.98
Upside / Downside0.11%122.49%368.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.20241.97257.69274.44292.28311.28320.62
Payout Ratio44.60%53.68%62.76%71.84%80.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.32129.88161.72197.15236.51280.15296.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.70120.83121.97
Year 2 PV (M)137.36139.98142.62
Year 3 PV (M)154.33158.76163.27
Year 4 PV (M)170.62177.18183.93
Year 5 PV (M)186.26195.26204.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,394.124,606.364,826.72
Equity Value (M)5,162.395,398.365,643.10
Shares Outstanding (M)399.92399.92399.92
Fair Value$12.91$13.50$14.11
Upside / Downside-46.44%-43.99%-41.45%

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