Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JL Mag Rare-Earth Co., Ltd. (300748.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.26 - $26.16$15.49
Multi-Stage$7.17 - $7.83$7.50
Blended Fair Value$11.49
Current Price$34.29
Upside-66.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.56%19.75%0.370.190.210.100.050.050.040.030.030.04
YoY Growth--91.13%-5.86%114.12%75.27%7.17%16.33%29.75%-2.17%-13.80%-34.19%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.23%1.16%0.48%0.39%0.43%0.43%0.70%0.71%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)609.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)409.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.9276.2045.72
Cash Retained (M)409.88409.88409.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.92-76.20-45.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.96333.68364.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.26$15.49$26.16
Upside / Downside-70.09%-54.82%-23.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)609.62649.24691.44736.39784.25835.23860.29
Payout Ratio32.76%44.21%55.66%67.11%78.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.74287.04384.85494.16616.05751.71795.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)260.35262.82265.29
Year 2 PV (M)316.61322.64328.73
Year 3 PV (M)368.74379.32390.11
Year 4 PV (M)416.95432.98449.48
Year 5 PV (M)461.45483.74506.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,858.538,238.108,632.19
Equity Value (M)9,682.6310,119.6010,572.67
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$7.17$7.50$7.83
Upside / Downside-79.08%-78.14%-77.16%

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