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Definitive Analysis

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Jones Tech PLC (300684.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.69 - $214.07$200.61
Multi-Stage$146.21 - $160.43$153.19
Blended Fair Value$176.90
Current Price$40.84
Upside333.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.62%80.87%0.240.610.410.590.360.110.070.030.020.08
YoY Growth---60.81%49.61%-30.98%66.09%234.89%49.07%144.10%41.11%-75.39%13,071.27%
Dividend Yield--0.95%3.69%2.31%3.74%1.90%0.41%0.28%0.13%0.52%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)321.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)193.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.2040.1324.08
Cash Retained (M)127.17127.17127.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.20-40.13-24.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.9787.05103.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.24298.24298.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.290.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.290.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.69$200.61$214.07
Upside / Downside344.89%391.21%424.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)321.02341.89364.11387.78412.99439.83453.02
Payout Ratio60.38%66.31%72.23%78.15%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)193.85226.70263.00303.06347.23395.85419.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)226.87229.03231.18
Year 2 PV (M)263.41268.43273.49
Year 3 PV (M)303.77312.49321.37
Year 4 PV (M)348.30361.70375.47
Year 5 PV (M)397.38416.57436.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,067.1944,099.0546,208.67
Equity Value (M)43,606.9245,687.2647,846.69
Shares Outstanding (M)298.24298.24298.24
Fair Value$146.21$153.19$160.43
Upside / Downside258.01%275.09%292.82%

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