Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Intco Medical Technology Co., Ltd. (300677.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.56 - $250.86$120.72
Multi-Stage$47.01 - $51.41$49.17
Blended Fair Value$84.95
Current Price$36.74
Upside131.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.62%49.66%0.530.100.641.650.230.050.020.020.020.02
YoY Growth--419.81%-84.21%-60.99%632.98%384.67%101.91%-0.65%1.75%26.33%92.27%
Dividend Yield--2.21%0.44%2.50%4.29%0.25%0.27%0.32%0.17%0.42%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,702.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)318.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,384.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.48212.80127.68
Cash Retained (M)1,384.031,384.031,384.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.48-212.80-127.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,043.551,171.231,256.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)639.29639.29639.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.631.831.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.631.831.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.132.332.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.56$120.72$250.86
Upside / Downside100.21%228.59%582.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,702.421,813.081,930.932,056.442,190.112,332.462,402.44
Payout Ratio18.70%32.96%47.22%61.48%75.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)318.39597.62911.811,264.321,658.802,099.222,222.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)545.35550.52555.69
Year 2 PV (M)759.29773.75788.35
Year 3 PV (M)960.74988.321,016.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,150.261,194.501,240.00
Year 5 PV (M)1,328.351,392.511,459.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,311.6626,534.2327,803.58
Equity Value (M)30,055.6531,433.8232,863.16
Shares Outstanding (M)639.29639.29639.29
Fair Value$47.01$49.17$51.41
Upside / Downside27.96%33.83%39.92%

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