Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Doctorglasses Chain Co.,Ltd. (300622.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.87 - $32.62$19.40
Multi-Stage$9.25 - $10.09$9.67
Blended Fair Value$14.53
Current Price$32.14
Upside-54.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.59%27.58%0.780.280.450.320.190.230.090.090.140.21
YoY Growth--179.62%-38.98%44.10%63.33%-15.81%153.53%0.00%-33.33%-35.65%210.68%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.64%2.11%1.74%1.14%1.89%0.85%0.76%0.60%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6013.508.10
Cash Retained (M)48.3848.3848.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.60-13.50-8.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.7834.8840.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)189.55189.55189.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.87$19.40$32.62
Upside / Downside-59.97%-39.64%1.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.98114.99122.47130.43138.91147.94152.37
Payout Ratio55.20%62.16%69.12%76.08%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.6071.4884.6599.23115.35133.14140.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)64.8265.4366.05
Year 2 PV (M)69.6170.9472.28
Year 3 PV (M)74.0076.1378.29
Year 4 PV (M)78.0181.0184.10
Year 5 PV (M)81.6685.6089.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,386.071,453.021,522.53
Equity Value (M)1,754.171,832.131,912.94
Shares Outstanding (M)189.55189.55189.55
Fair Value$9.25$9.67$10.09
Upside / Downside-71.21%-69.93%-68.60%

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